The upcoming US presidential election has concentrated diplomatic minds.
Worldwide, diplomats are forming their Red and Blue playbooks to give their political bosses a readout on what’s likely if it is Trump 2.0 or Harris 1.0 who is the next US president.
Says Luxon: “I’m very confident with whether it’s a Republican or Democrat we will be fine … we’ve put in the necessary investment.”
He reckons both himself and externally facing colleagues – Winston Peters (foreign affairs), Judith Collins (defence) and Todd McClay (trade) – have made sufficient progress in bedding in key political connections in both the Republican and Democratic power structures to be seen as a trusted partner by both sides, particularly in the Pacific.
Then there is New Zealand’s support for Nato. Joining the US-led IPEF agreement. Putting in place the bones of quasi-trade agreements at the US state level and more.
Luxon is settling into his role as New Zealand’s lead diplomat.
This is no disrespect to Peters, who back in the role as Foreign Minister for the third time, has the experience, dedication and foreign policy chops to have forged and strengthened the connections that are vital to this country’s future.
But the leader of a country also has a pivotal role to play and the Prime Minister’s challenge will be to take New Zealanders with him as his Government moves to increase New Zealand’s defence spending.
Next year, and as is likely, set about creating the constituency for New Zealand to collaborate under Pillar 2 of the Aukus arrangement, if the upcoming Defence Capability Review (and other soundings) point that way. He stresses this has yet to go to Cabinet which will make the decision.
When I caught up with the Prime Minister a week ago, it was New Zealand’s relationship with the United States that was top of mind for me.
After several weeks off work watching wall-to-wall US politics, it was time to reflect on just how far the relationship between our two countries has come in the past 15 years.
The accomplished US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell had just praised New Zealand’s work in the Pacific thus: “We want to just acknowledge the role that New Zealand has played in helping provide counsel and guidance as we have re-engaged with the Pacific.
“I think it is no exaggeration to say that more than any other country, they have provided private counsel suggestions about how best to engage, how to meet expectations, how to follow through in ways that maximise our commitments and our hopes in this very dynamic and important vast region.
“I think we wanted and hope and expect to be able to work more together in that arena.”
These words were spoken at a media roundtable the US Embassy had held at the JW Marriott hotel in Auckland the previous week.
While Campbell is said to have later chaffed on the number of “gotcha questions” thrown his way by New Zealand journalists, there was sufficient depth to his responses to indicate just how much the US now relies on New Zealand – not Australia – for a readout and counsel on the changing dynamics in the Pacific.
It’s notable the United States is now New Zealand’s second-largest trading partner.
Talking with the Prime Minister, he was frank about the difficulty a tiny country like New Zealand can face gaining a share of mind in a massive system like the United States.
Those CEOs that have travelled with Luxon this year on missions into Southeast Asia, Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur and Seoul know that he sets a furious pace: 27 meetings in just one day in Tokyo.
So too, with his journey to Washington DC for the Nato meetings where he met leading Senate and Congressional representatives from the Republican and Democratic parties, and investor soirees in San Francisco.
After the recent Pacific Islands Forum in Tonga, Campbell swung by Auckland to co-chair the US-New Zealand Strategic Dialogue and to launch the inaugural Critical and Emerging Technology Dialogue.
The upshot, he said, was the US felt some really important arenas inside New Zealand’s technology infrastructure offered enormous possibilities for cooperation and engagement.
In his own discussions with Luxon in Tonga, Campbell said the pair had talked about building more connectivity between our peoples by institutionalising a forum that brings prominent New Zealanders to the United States, and then Americans as well to New Zealand. He noted the US had similar forums with countries in Asia, including with Australia.
Luxon acknowledges there is room to deepen and grow the relationship, as Campbell has suggested.
This week The White House issued a joint statement on Aukus which said: “recognising these countries’ close bilateral defense [sic] partnerships with each member of Aukus, we are consulting with Canada, New Zealand, and the Republic of Korea to identify possibilities for collaboration on advanced capabilities under Aukus Pillar II.”
Pillar 2 has been assigned eight priority research fields: advanced cyber, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, undersea capabilities, hypersonics, electronic warfare, innovation, and information sharing.
Luxon acknowledges New Zealand has capabilities in some of these areas.
More particularly, there is now an intense focus on ensuring New Zealand’s own strategic focus which encompasses the Antarctic, our economic zone and the realm countries are protected.
The defence review has to weigh all aspects but a betting person would say its recommendations would include increasing the defence vote and collaborating on Pillar 2.
