TOKYO – Four of Japan’s nine prime minister hopefuls are regular visitors to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine in a practice that, if the successful candidate continues, will throw a wrench into blossoming ties with South Korea while further chilling relations with China.
Two of the nine candidates argue that Japan should arm itself with nuclear weapons or submarines, while one is calling for an “Asian Nato”, referring to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation alliance of 30 European nations, as well as US and Canada.
Japan is seen as a reliable defender of the geopolitical status quo because it advocates for the rules-based international order. But how the country’s 102nd prime minister engages with the rest of the world – friend or foe, advanced economies or the Global South – will have important ramifications.
Former environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 43, former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba, 67, and incumbent economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, 63, are perceived as front runners in an election that remains wide open going into its Sept 27 finale.
Whoever wins the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) election, for which campaigning kicked off on Sept 12, must steer Japan through choppy geopolitical waters amid intensifying great power competition between the United States, its security ally, and China, its largest trading partner.
He or she will also have to contend with a US election on the horizon, as well as simmering fears of a Taiwan conflict.
Political observers think that Japan will largely stay the same course charted by outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, given that all nine prime ministerial hopefuls agree on the need for Japan to strengthen its own defences and work closely with like-minded democracies.
But they warn of key ideological differences that hint at a diplomatic naivete that could upset fragile diplomatic balances, with Doshisha University political scientist Toru Yoshida saying that there was “no room for drastic foreign policy manoeuvres” that could worsen global uncertainty.
Senior fellow Tetsuo Kotani of the Japan Institute of International Affairs told The Straits Times: “It is unfortunate that a potential prime minister does not understand the security environment surrounding Japan.”
While he believes that most candidates would “keep the basic direction”, there are policy ideas that will cause alarm, such as Ms Takaichi’s suggestion that Japan should host American nuclear weapons.
Digital Minister Taro Kono, 61, meanwhile, said Japan should lobby to join Aukus, referring to the trilateral alliance between Australia, Britain and the US, and equip itself with nuclear submarines.
“But the US does not have nukes to be introduced in Japan,” Professor Kotani, who teaches at Meikai University, argued. “Nuclear submarines also do not fit in the shallow waters of the East China Sea, and it would be a waste of money for Japan to possess them.”
A nuclear-equipped Japan would be controversial both at home, given that Japan remains the only country in the world to suffer atomic bombings, and abroad, since it could well accelerate an arms race with its nuclear-armed neighbours China, North Korea and Russia.
Mr Kono further said that if he were prime minister, he would urge Nato to revisit plans to launch a liaison office in Tokyo. This was mooted in 2022 but abandoned given opposition by member states such as France.
How might Japan’s next PM steer diplomacy? ‘Asian Nato’ and nukes among policy ideas
