The bench arguably remains a work in progress with a few players – Ethan Blackadder, Fletcher Newell, Patrick Tuipolutu and Cam Roigard – to return to full fitness and force a bit of rethinking, but the starting XV to play the Wallabies looks awfully like the team that Scott Robertson and his coaching panel are developing with the end of season tour in mind, which will see the All Blacks play England, Ireland and France on successive weekends.
Certainty is good – it gives a sense that Robertson and his selection team are adapting, learning and reacting, and most importantly, it gives a sense that the hit and hope era, is over.
The journey to this point has endured a number of twists and turns, which saw Robertson drop Rieko Ioane for the opening Rugby Championship game, only to return him to the midfield a week later.
It was obvious that Ioane was dropped for a perceived, or real, failing in his distribution and option-taking in the two tests against England, but it was never clear at the time, whether this was a move designed to jolt him into improvement or a lack of faith among the coaching panel about Ioane’s ability to be the sort of centre they wanted him to be.
The fact he was restored to the starting team the following week and has remained there ever since, suggests it was a shock-drop strategy, and the coaching panel, for the remainder of this year at least, seem likely to persevere with Ioane starting at centre and shifting to the wing later in the game.
Knowing what to do with Beauden Barrett has been an even harder puzzle for Robertson to solve and it’s one that’s seemingly vexed the entire coaching group.
They had him on the bench, then he was so good they wanted him on the park for 80 minutes, and then when he made a couple of key decision-making and execution errors at Ellis Park, he was booted back to the bench.
Now he’s back in the starting XV and that may be because Robertson has made two other realisations: that if he’s going to persist with Damian McKenzie at first-five, that whole business will work better with Barrett’s sage advice being fed from the backfield, his ability to play first receiver and take some of the game management responsibilities off the No 10.
Secondly, it may be that having insisted Will Jordan is a fullback who can play wing, Robertson may have seen enough in Cape Town to be more inclined to see that the other way round.
Jordan, despite his brilliance at Super Rugby level at fullback, disappeared against the Boks when he played in his preferred role – lacking a positional sense and a desire to take command of nullifying the aerial assault, while there was no evidence he was willing or able to pop at first receiver.
Rugby fans of a certain age may carry nostalgic memories of Christian Cullen dancing through defences, but the reality now is that fullback is a position that has a split personality: it’s one role in Super Rugby and a completely different job in test rugby, and Jordan may be someone who wears 15 for the Crusaders, but 14 for the All Blacks.
But as much as Robertson’s commitment to Ioane, Barrett and Jordan provides a sense of stability and certainty, if this team is indeed closing in on being the preferred XV for the remainder of the year, it raises a few questions.
Dalton Papali’i has disappeared entirely, which is a bigger issue than it may seem because Sam Cane is not going to be here next year.
There has been a narrative about this being a rebuilding job with half an eye on the longer-term, but it’s not clear who will inherit the No 7 jersey when Cane retires.
He’s in form and a player the All Blacks feel they need on the park to ensure they win games now, but that shouldn’t prevent them from also developing an openside for tomorrow.
Papali’i appeared to be the frontrunner earlier this year, but his omission from the 23 suggests that maybe there is another plan in mind for 2025.
Is Ardie Savea going to switch to No 7 next year? Or are we going to see Hurricanes No 7 Peter Lakai be called up for the end-of-year tour, given games against Japan and Italy to see if he is the long-term answer?
Given there remains some uncertainty about whether the All Blacks have the right blindside – Wallace Sititi is a natural No 8 and Ethan Blackadder has been so injury prone as to have missed every other season – it feels like the next seven tests are a critical opportunity to start building, even if it’s just the last 20 minutes, a loose forward combination with 2025 in mind.
For live commentary of All Blacks v Australia, join Elliott Smith on Newstalk ZB, Gold Sport and iHeartRadio.
